Lebanon's foreign policy has long been shaped by its complex relationship with neighboring Syria. In recent months, there has been growing attention to Lebanon's diplomatic shift, as it seeks to strengthen ties with Syria under its new leadership. Whether this new approach will usher in a lasting period of cooperation or simply reflect temporary pragmatism remains uncertain.
A History of Ties
The relationship between Lebanon and Syria is deeply rooted in history, with Syria playing a significant role in Lebanon's internal politics, particularly during the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990). For nearly 30 years, Syrian military presence in Lebanon was the norm, shaping everything from security policy to national elections. Despite Syria's withdrawal in 2005 after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Lebanon’s ties to Syria have remained influential, with factions like Hezbollah maintaining strong ties to the Assad regime.
The Context: Syrian Leadership Change
Recent developments in Syria’s leadership, particularly in the wake of the ongoing civil war, have prompted a shift in Lebanon's stance. While President Bashar al-Assad remains the official head of Syria, there may be subtle shifts in leadership within his regime or among his allies. These internal changes are significant for Lebanon, especially since Syria’s domestic stability often directly impacts Lebanon’s political and security landscape.
The so-called "new Syrian leadership" could involve either a generational shift or power redistribution, signaling potential changes in Syria’s approach to Lebanon. Any such transition would naturally prompt Lebanon to recalibrate its own foreign policy.
Lebanon’s Motivations for Closer Ties
Lebanon's economy has been in freefall since 2019, with hyperinflation, unemployment, and a crumbling infrastructure. With its international allies either preoccupied with their own challenges or offering little more than lip service, Lebanon may see greater cooperation with Syria as an essential step to restore some semblance of stability. There are a few clear reasons behind Lebanon’s desire for better relations:
Border Security and Refugee Issues: Lebanon is home to over 1 million Syrian refugees, a burden that has exacerbated the country’s economic and social challenges. Lebanon may seek to collaborate with Syria to find solutions to the refugee crisis, potentially encouraging repatriation and securing better management of the border.
Economic Cooperation: Lebanon has faced isolation from regional markets due to sanctions and political instability. Reopening trade routes and improving cross-border economic activity with Syria could be seen as a way to revive Lebanon’s struggling economy. Additionally, there may be opportunities for Lebanon to benefit from Syria’s reconstruction efforts once the war ends.
Political Stability: Lebanon's domestic political gridlock has left the country without a fully functioning government for extended periods. A more cooperative stance toward Syria could be seen as a way to ensure regional political stability and reduce the likelihood of instability spilling over the border.
The Regional and International Dynamics
However, Lebanon’s shift toward closer ties with Syria is not without complications. Lebanon's alliances are often at odds with each other. On one side, Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian factions advocate for strong ties with Damascus, while factions aligned with the West and the Gulf states (e.g., Saudi Arabia) view Syria with suspicion, given its role in the civil war and its close relationships with Iran.
The international community, including the United States and the European Union, has long maintained sanctions on Syria due to human rights violations and the Assad regime’s role in the conflict. Any rapprochement with Syria could complicate Lebanon’s foreign relations and place pressure on the country’s delicate balance of power.
Moreover, regional dynamics, particularly the involvement of Iran in Syria, further complicate Lebanon's choices. If Lebanon moves too quickly toward Syria, it may risk alienating the Gulf states, who are important sources of financial aid and investment.
Challenges and Uncertainties
While Lebanon may seek to establish “good relations” with Syria, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. The political instability within Lebanon itself—ranging from unresolved leadership crises to ongoing corruption scandals—could undermine any diplomatic efforts. Furthermore, the expectations placed on Lebanon by international powers, including the United States, could limit the country’s ability to engage with Syria without facing consequences.
Additionally, the potential for future shifts in Syria's leadership structure remains unpredictable. While Bashar al-Assad remains in power, it is unclear how long his leadership will last. The possibility of new actors emerging within Syria’s political system could bring a new set of challenges or opportunities for Lebanon.
Lebanon’s desire for "good relations" with Syria under a new leadership is both a pragmatic and delicate maneuver. While Lebanon may hope to gain economic relief, political stability, and regional security through closer ties with Syria, it must navigate a complex web of internal political dynamics, regional alliances, and international pressures. In the years to come, Lebanon's relationship with Syria may well prove to be one of the most important factors shaping the country’s future trajectory.