For many years, Iran's nuclear program has caused concern on the international scene. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement signed in 2015, aimed to reduce Iran's nuclear aspirations in return for the lifting of sanctions. But the US's 2018 exit from the agreement raised questions about its viability. This article looks at Iran's nuclear program's possible future, the dangers of Iran having nuclear weapons, and the likelihood of the agreement being revived.
JCPOA Resumption: A Way Back to Stability?
The JCPOA's supporters contend that it is still the best way to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The agreement made it possible to closely monitor Iran's nuclear activities by severely limiting its uranium enrichment and stocks. In order to rejoin the JCPOA, Iran would have to reduce its nuclear activity, and in exchange, the US and other foreign partners would relax sanctions, supporting Iran's faltering economy.
There are still a lot of formidable obstacles to overcome. Iran has intensified its nuclear program since the US withdrew, refining uranium to almost weapon-grade levels. It seems possible that both parties will need to make concessions in order to negotiate a new deal. While Iran would want guarantees that the US will not impose more limits beyond the JCPOA's original sunset clauses, Western countries might try to impose further ones.
Is Regional Security Threatened by a Nuclear Iran?
Reviving the agreement has its detractors, who point out that the security of the area would be gravely threatened by an armed Iran. In retaliation, nations like Saudi Arabia would pursue their own nuclear programs, which might start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Furthermore, Iran's nuclear weapons might increase its backing of proxy militias around the region, adding to the already unstable situation.
There is a grave risk associated with a nuclear arms race. The possibility of an unintentional escalation or miscalculation that results in a catastrophic conflict cannot be ignored by the international community.
Deterrence or Diplomacy: The Way Forward
The course of Iran's nuclear development is still unknown and depends on the intricate interactions between internal politics in Iran and the US as well as diplomacy and deterrence. The best chance for a peaceful resolution lies in resuming international negotiations with the goal of either creating a new accord or revitalizing the JCPOA.
It is imperative to preserve a robust global alliance dedicated to impeding Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. Negotiations may be complicated by internal issues in the US and Iranian governments, therefore it will be important to focus on regional security and stability.
The course of Iran's nuclear program is a crucial matter with far-reaching consequences. The international community must make great efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and to maintain long-term stability in the region by promoting diplomacy and deterrence as the cornerstones of a peaceful resolution.