How the Iran-Pakistan Conflict Threatens the Nuclear Deal and the Global Order

 


Iran and Pakistan, two neighboring nations, share a lengthy and permeable border, characterized by a complex and contradictory relationship.

While both countries are Islamic republics, their sectarian and geopolitical orientations differ. Iran, a Shia-majority nation, maintains close ties with Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, while opposing the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, Pakistan, a Sunni-majority country, has strong connections with China, Turkey, and the Gulf states. It navigates a delicate balance with the US, India, and Afghanistan.

Collaborating on issues like trade, energy, and counter-terrorism, Iran and Pakistan aim to uphold cordial relations. However, disputes over border security, sectarian violence, and regional influence have led to conflicts. Both nations grapple with threats from militant groups operating across their borders, including Baloch separatists, Sunni extremists, and the Taliban.

Tensions between Iran and Pakistan also stem from concerns about Iran's nuclear program. Iran asserts its nuclear activities are peaceful and legal, emphasizing its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes. However, the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia accuse Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons and destabilizing the region.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, reached in 2015 between Iran and six world powers, aimed to limit Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. However, the situation escalated after the US withdrawal in 2018, leading to increased hostilities, including the assassinations of Qassem Soleimani and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

Efforts to revive the nuclear talks in 2021 faced obstacles, including US sanctions, Iranian elections, Israeli sabotage, and regional conflicts. In January 2024, a series of cross-border attacks and clashes intensified hostilities:

1. Iran's missile attack on a Pakistani village in Balochistan on January 10, 2024, resulted in casualties. Pakistan condemned it as a violation of sovereignty.
2. Pakistan's drone strike on an Iranian convoy on January 12, 2024, led to casualties. Iran denounced it as aggression.
3. Iran's shelling on a Pakistani military post on January 14, 2024, resulted in casualties. Pakistan claimed self-defense.

The international community expressed concern over the escalation, urging restraint, a ceasefire, and a return to dialogue. The US and its allies supported Pakistan, condemning Iran for aggression and accusing it of using the conflict as leverage in the nuclear talks.




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