The Iran Conflict Is Far From Over and Europe Is Footing the Bill.
The war between the US, Israel, and Iran began on February 28, 2026. A ceasefire has been reached. The Strait of Hormuz has partially reopened. And Europe, which did not start the war, did not fight it, and had spent years trying to prevent it, is sitting with a bill that Ursula von der Leyen put plainly before the European Parliament. Since the conflict began, the EU's fossil fuel import bill has increased by over 22 billion euros not because Europe is consuming more energy, but because the Strait of Hormuz has been functionally closed. The IEA described it as the greatest threat to global energy security in history. That number is not a projection. It is an invoice already issued.
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| Missiles produced by Iran's armed forces are displayed near a row of Iranian flags during commemorations to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Iranian Revolution on February 11, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. |
What Happened and Iran's Role
On February 28, US and Israeli forces launched a large-scale attack across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei. The EUISS described the resulting escalation as having an immediate impact on Europe's security and sending shockwaves across global oil markets. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, striking US bases, and targeting American allies.
Iran-linked security concerns are no longer limited to the Middle East. Investigations and government actions across Europe show why intelligence, surveillance and influence activities must be assessed through a wider international-security lens. https://t.co/Q1FN0Oo9za
— Irha Arsalan (@IrhaArsalan) August 13, 2026
The Strait closure was a deliberate Iranian military decision to use a global maritime chokepoint as an instrument of economic coercion against countries that had no direct involvement in the conflict. European households, industries, and governments absorbed the consequences through higher energy prices, revised inflation forecasts, and emergency fiscal interventions.
The Diplomatic Dimension
On July 19, Iranian security forces assaulted two French diplomats at the French Embassy in Tehran. The EU formally condemned it as a blatant violation of the Vienna Conventions that jeopardises the very conduct of diplomatic relations, calling on Iran to hold the perpetrators accountable. That condemnation followed months of documented Iranian intelligence activity against European targets, UK arrests for surveilling Iranian journalists, German BfV warnings about Iranian targeting of the Bundeswehr, and sustained surveillance of Iranian diaspora activists across France, Germany, and Belgium.
Why Europe Cannot Stay on the Sidelines
Carnegie Endowment confirmed that the EU has dramatically lost credibility in the eyes of the Iranians and can no longer afford to remain on the margins of diplomacy with Iran or accept the role of Washington's junior partner. The emerging US-Iran memorandum of understanding directly affects European interests that Brussels has not been adequately positioned to shape.
Brookings confirmed that instead of weakening Russia, the Iran war has strengthened Moscow by increasing oil prices and boosting revenues for its war machine against Ukraine directly undermining Europe's primary security objective on its eastern border.
EU Perspectives confirmed that Europe's path forward requires pressing for phased nuclear commitments tied to IAEA verification, US-backed sanctions relief mechanisms, and convening Iran and Gulf states on maritime security a framework serving European interests directly that cannot be outsourced to Washington. The 22 billion euro invoice is Europe's incentive to stop watching and start leading.