The Syrian conflict, now in its 13th year, remains one of the most complex geopolitical crises of our time. Amid the chaos, the relationship between Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Al-Qaeda continues to cast a long shadow over Syria’s future. Despite al-Julani’s 2016 split from Al-Qaeda, his group's ideology and operations remain heavily influenced by the jihadist organization's teachings, making it an important factor in the ongoing war.
The Al-Julani-Al-Qaeda Connection
Abu Mohammad al-Julani first rose to prominence during the Syrian civil war as a commander of Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. In 2016, in an effort to broaden his appeal and distance his group from Al-Qaeda’s global jihadist brand, al-Julani announced a break from the organization. He rebranded his faction as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a move that many hoped would help the group gain legitimacy and garner local support in northern Syria.
However, despite the formal break, al-Julani and HTS have continued to maintain close ties to Al-Qaeda’s ideology and tactics. Al-Julani has publicly praised the work of Al-Qaeda's leaders and expressed his commitment to their vision of a global Islamic caliphate, which still resonates within HTS. The group’s military strategies, including its brutal tactics and disregard for international norms, reflect its roots in Al-Qaeda’s playbook.
Impact on Syria's Future
The enduring influence of Al-Qaeda’s ideology within HTS has significant implications for Syria’s future. Although HTS is now primarily focused on controlling Idlib province in northwest Syria, its links to Al-Qaeda present a challenge for any potential reconciliation process in the country. With the West and many regional powers viewing HTS as a terrorist organization, efforts to bring peace to Syria are complicated by the group’s presence.
The situation is further complicated by the region’s shifting alliances. Turkey has been a key supporter of HTS, viewing the group as a useful counterbalance to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, as well as Kurdish forces in northern Syria. However, as the international community moves toward a more diplomatic solution for Syria, the lingering presence of groups like HTS creates a significant obstacle. The international community is divided over how to deal with al-Julani and his forces, which makes any potential peace process more difficult.
The Way Forward
The question remains: what does Syria’s future look like if groups like HTS continue to maintain a foothold in the country? While al-Julani may have distanced himself from Al-Qaeda on paper, the legacy of the group’s influence remains deeply embedded in his faction. For peace to take hold in Syria, the country will need to address not just the political and military complexities of the conflict, but also the ideological battle that Al-Qaeda continues to wage through its influence on groups like HTS.
The path to a peaceful and stable Syria is fraught with challenges, but understanding the historical connections between Al-Julani, Al-Qaeda, and the current dynamics of the conflict is essential in navigating the road ahead.
As Syria moves forward, the past will continue to shape its future. The enduring link between al-Julani and Al-Qaeda, despite their public split, is a reminder of how deep-seated ideological movements can shape a conflict for years to come. Whether this legacy is a hindrance or a stepping stone toward a peaceful Syria will depend on the future of HTS, the international community's approach, and the people of Syria who have endured over a decade of conflict.