South Korea is gearing up to launch its first commercial-grade satellite, while North Korea is pushing ahead with its plans to put a military spy satellite into orbit. The South Korean satellite will be launched through a domestically made rocket as part of the country's space development program. Although Seoul officials claim that the launch has no military purpose, experts believe it will eventually aid South Korea in acquiring the necessary technologies and expertise to operate military surveillance satellites and develop more powerful missiles.
The Nuri space launch vehicle is scheduled to take off from a launch facility on a southern South Korean island, provided there are no unexpected weather conditions or other last-minute issues, according to the Science Ministry. The rocket will carry the main satellite, known as "Next Generation Small Satellite 2," as well as seven smaller, cube-shaped satellites. The primary satellite's tasks include verifying imaging radar technology and observing cosmic radiation in near-Earth orbit, as stated by the ministry.
This launch marks the third attempt involving the Nuri rocket, South Korea's first domestically developed rocket. In its initial launch in 2021, the rocket's dummy payload reached the desired altitude but failed to enter orbit. However, in the second attempt last year, South Korea successfully placed a "performance verification satellite" into orbit, primarily aiming to assess the Nuri rocket. This accomplishment made South Korea the 10th nation in the world to send a satellite into space using its own technology.
The launch takes place against the backdrop of increased military tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Since the beginning of 2022, North Korea has conducted over 100 missile test launches, including nuclear-capable weapons designed to target South Korea and the United States. North Korea claims that these tests are a response to the expansion of military drills between the United States and South Korea, with analysts suggesting they serve as pressure tactics to reduce military training and ease economic sanctions.
Recently, on May 16, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected a completed military spy satellite at the country's aerospace center and approved an undisclosed action plan for its launch. Kim emphasized the strategic significance of a spy satellite, pledging to bolster the country's defense against what he referred to as "US imperialists and (South) Korean puppet villains" escalating their confrontational moves, according to state media.
Some experts argue that the spy satellite showcased in North Korean state media may not possess the sophistication to generate high-resolution imagery that significantly enhances the country's surveillance capabilities. However, Lee Choon Geun, an honorary research fellow at South Korea's Science and Technology Policy Institute, suggests that the North Korean satellite is still likely to be capable of monitoring the deployment of incoming US strategic assets, such as aircraft carriers, as well as the movements of South Korean warships and fighter jets.
Lee emphasizes that having such a satellite would be advantageous for North Korea. He predicts that after the first spy satellite launch, North Korea will attempt to send several more satellites into space, potentially more advanced ones. With a fleet of three to five satellites, North Korea could have near real-time monitoring capabilities over the Korean Peninsula.
While the launch of South Korea's satellite on Wednesday is not primarily intended for military purposes, Jung Chang Wook, head of the Korea Defense Study Forum think tank in Seoul, asserts that it will provide the country with technologies related to the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and military spy satellites. Jung suggests that the way the launch is publicly described is a matter of avoiding unnecessary provocation to neighboring countries.
South Korea currently relies on US spy satellites to monitor strategic facilities in North Korea, as it lacks its own military reconnaissance satellites. However, South Korea aims to launch its own surveillance satellites in the near future. Jung highlights the need for longer-range missiles in preparation for potential security threats posed by adversaries like China and Russia, despite South Korea already possessing missiles capable of striking all of North Korea.
Regarding the use of the Nuri rocket as a missile, Lee explains that it is not militarily significant due to its reliance on liquid fuel, which requires a longer fueling time compared to solid fuel rockets. Nevertheless, he suggests that the launch still has the potential to support South Korea's efforts in building a space-based surveillance system. The commercial-grade satellite is set to be placed on a sun-synchronous orbit, typically utilized by reconnaissance satellites.
With South Korea on the verge of launching its commercial satellite and North Korea intensifying its pursuit of a military spy satellite, the regional dynamics and security implications in the Korean Peninsula are evolving, raising concerns and heightening tensions among the neighboring countries.